Seasonality: Insider’s guide to cool deals in HOT neighborhoods

win-win concept on blackboard

From comments thus far, looks like Boston.com readers have missed the significance of seasonality in a blog post today about buying in HOT neighborhoods.

The featured buyer timed the housing market a year before the last boom / bust cycle peaked, so as Zillow economists caution (1) that “Home price gains are not normal, sustainable, or believable,” and (2) that the Boston housing market will come to a near standstill in 2014, it’s worth studying this case study:

“I looked exclusively at places that were on the market for more than 3 months when we first saw them. The house we live in now, we first saw in February, 2004 and it had been on the market for 9 months.”

Sounds like that buyer was smart enough to know that hot neighborhoods have cool seasons, and savings are sometimes more easily realized by timing the market rather than price negotiations, particularly in luxury price ranges as we’ve blogged in December 2011:

Do savings on expired luxury homes really exceed price reductions?

So, as the tax-free holiday approaches next weekend (August 10-11, 2013) across Massachusetts, it worth highlighting there are seasons to grab hidden opportunities in real estate, too:

1.  For the past 15 years, there have been approximately 1,000 to 3,500 expired and canceled listings during the 10 day period between June 26 and July 5. While those properties no longer appear in the MLS, that doesn’t mean they no longer intend to sell. We’ve been blogging about “Intention Inventory,” and suggest readers expand their reactive house hunts to think proactively to explore BOTH pre-MLS and POST-MLS home buying opportunities particularly in HOT NEIGHBORHOODS.

2. The other cool season begins when temperatures plunge, particularly after Halloween. So if you’re timing the housing market right now, note that Halloween is exactly three months or 90 days from now — that mirrors the success story in the Boston.com today. What can you expect if you wait 90 days? We’ve written extensively about that in the past and are interested to see how 2013 will compare to last year. Can you believe there were more than 15,000 expired and canceled listings across MA during the 4Q2012 alone?

If you’re timing the housing market to buy an expired or canceled listing during the 4th of July cycle or post Halloween “Let’s Make a Deal Season,” think of it as real estate’s equivalent of a tax-free holiday. If you haven’t visited the expired or canceled listing before or haven’t corresponded with the former listing agent about the property, DIY homebuyers should be able to buy the home for approximately 5% off the last asking price in the MLS because there are no longer any brokerage commissions buried in the sales price.

OFFER: Learn how to approach the owners of expired and canceled listings with our FREE Insiders’s Guide. Click for more information.

Posted in DIY Homebuyers, Expired listings, Fee-for-service, FSBO: For Sale By Owner, Luxury homes, Million Dollar Markdowns, Price reductions, Savings & Rebates, Seasonality, Timing the market

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