Real estate predictions 2014: Have sellers already missed the best time to sell?

CrystalBall2014

Ready to reset your assumptions about where the housing market is headed in 2014 and beyond?  Compared to other housing gurus, Mark Hanson looks at trends upside down and backwards; as buyer agents, that’s Real Estate Cafe’s perspective too.  So for us, bad news for sellers is good news for our buyer clients, and emerging signs continue to point to what the Realtor’s chief economist recently called the “last hurrah” for 12 to 18 months:

1.  Two months of falling median prices on pending sales in MA;

2.  11,000+ expired & canceled listings over the past 12 weeks, or nearly 1,000 per week statewide;

3.  Yesterday’s big news, the Fed will begin winding down it’s economic stimulus in January 2014,

4.  Today’s bad news:  Mass. jobless rate is higher than US for first time since ’07!
http://bit.ly/UnemployMAvUS (please share this short URL via social media)

QUESTION

Will 2014 be a good time to sell in MA, or have homeowners who waited already missed the Bubble 2.0 peak?
What’s your opinion before and after reading Hanson’s challenging assessment and bottomline:

Housing “Bubble 2.0”; Same as “Bubble 1.0”, only different actors
http://bit.ly/REBubble2 (please share this short URL via social media)

Bottom line:  Houses first became “unaffordable” in 2002.  Then, exotic loans were introduced in 2003 allowing people to keep buying more house without income following suit.  When the exotic loans all went away at the same time in 2008 house prices “reset” to the real “affordability” using a 30-year fixed rate mortgages requiring proof of income and assets.  The market ticked higher slightly in 2010 on the Homebuyer Tax-Credit then “double-dipped” as the stimulus was removed.  Of course, the third major stimulus aimed at housing in the last 10 years came in Q4 2011, exactly when housing caught it’s most recent bid.  The past two-year move was so fast and large that the subsequent “reset” should be ‘another’ one for the record books.

BUBBLE HOUR

Anyone want to meet on or offline when the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) / The Warren Group stats come out for last month?  If those stats don’t reflect the trends above, is it just a matter of time before we begin hearing bad news with unflattering month-over-month comparisons between 2013 and 2014? Or will the Fed’s tapering create another “greater fool” housing market sending buyers into bidding war frenzy particularly if the Boston Globe’s repeats a series of front page stories about lack of inventory and overeager homebuyers?

When the Massachusetts Miracle unraveled didn’t that leave people wondering what happened?  If the Fed ends it’s stimulus by this time next year, will buyers and sellers wonder what happened to the Housing iCovery of 2013:

“iCovery” is the word we coined for the interest rate, investor-driven, illusory housing recovery of 2013, which in our assessment, was not a real or sustainable housing recovery. That’s clearly Mark Hanson’s assessment, too.  Buyers, sellers, fellow real estate professionals:  what’s your crystal ball predicting for 2014 and beyond?

CALL TO ACTION

Trying to decide whether to sell home in 2014?  By dealing directly with one of our pre-approved buyers, you can avoid paying traditional real estate commission.  If you’d like more information email realestatecafe@gmail.com after reading our blog posts about the (1) Great Senior Sell-Off, and (2) the Intention Inventory. Then watch (3) this two minute video on saving home equity:  http://bit.ly/SaveHomeEquity

Posted in Bubble Hour, Buyer agent, Defensive Homebuying, Expired listings, Housing bubble, Housing forecasts, Pending sales, Real Estate Bubble, Timing the market, Trend analysis

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