Crowdsourcing insights into a slumping housing market in Boston

bostonbubble_links_2005-112316

December 11 will mark the 9th anniversary of joining http://BostonBubble.com, a forum for homebuyers to crowdsource insights during the real estate recession.  Over that period, Real Estate Cafe contributed over 100 posts, and two offer context for the current housing market.  Obviously, they were written pre-Trump, and one cannot underestimate the potential impact his presidency (if it is not overturned by the Electoral College) will have on the housing market.  Despite his celebrity status as a “real estate mogul,” he has NEVER developed a housing policy and his choice lead HUD, Dr. Ben Carson, has no housing experience.

Six months after warning homebuyers on BostonBubble of a changing housing market, October stats and recent headlines reveal that real estate sales and prices are falling in Massachusetts

http://bit.ly/MassREDipOct2016

http://bit.ly/RESlumpLinks

As interest rates rise, will 1Q2017 see a repeat of 1Q2016?   Time to exercise “Defensive Homebuying” strategies so you can save money, be proactive or simply sit out because there is too much uncertainty?  If you’re inclined to buy, here’s the case for bargain hunting this time of year:

http://bit.ly/WinterREBargains

FLASHBACKS: 

Posted: Thu Apr 07, 2016    Post subject: Prices down in 51 towns & suburbs in Metro Boston

Yesterday, Boston Globe ran a story on Peak Rents, today another indication that 2016 is turning point:

51 towns & Metro #Boston suburbs have begun 2016 on home price losing streak

http://bit.ly/MetroBosREDown

Anyone want to meet at Cambridge Common near Harvard Square or Joshua Tree in Davis Square to talk about the implications of these emerging trends, and whether it’s possible or wise to “time the market.”

+ + +

Know anyone who’s suffering from buyer’s remorse, wondering if they were manipulated into overpaying in the past two years? Will we see a “Bidding War Backlash” in the next 18 months and a repeat of regrets like those in 2008?

http://bit.ly/Misled2014

+ + +

Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2016

Rather than taking legal action two years from now, what’s the best way to be preemptive — calm bidding wars during the next 100 days?

My hypothesis: By mid-August, the pre-election pause will cool currently overheated areas expanding the count of communities with falling housing prices.

What’s your prediction?

+ + +

As the image above shows, comments on BostonBubble have dropped to a trickle and there haven’t been any updates on the news feed in four months.  So Real Estate Cafe is setting up a place to monitor REBubble 2.0 online and we’re eager to begin hosting informal “Bubble Hours” as part of our ongoing series of conversations over beer, aka #REonTap.  Our goal is to inform homebuyer clients by crowdsourcing insights from other buyers, and selected real estate professionals particularly other buyer agents. Similar crowdsourcing efforts a decade ago helped some clients save more than $100,000 off original asking prices.

Here’s what our Real Estate Bubble Map / wiki looked like a decade ago (unfortunately Platial.com went out of business so you’ll see repeated gaps), want to help us explore ways to track REBubble 2.0 this time?  Here’s what’s at stake:

MUST READ list of why Bubble 2.0 more dangerous than Bubble 1.0

http://bit.ly/Bubble2SF

Related Articles

Globe follow-up II

As you can see from the early experiment below, we’ve been mapping
homes selling for below assessed value in Newton since November 2005:
http://tinyurl.com/qpbsh

When we noticed that the same pattern was playing out in more than 25
of the most expensive cities and towns in Greater Boston,  we expanded
the map beyond Newton:
http://www.platial.com/realestatecafe/map/6343

We also decided to work with a mapping platform that enables anyone to
post comments, add properties to an existing map, or create their own
map.  Check out this map of Cambridge, MA where the myth is that sales
prices never decline because of the built-in demand from Harvard and
MIT:
http://www.platial.com/westsidebubble

You don’t need to be a Harvard & MIT grad to recognize a falling
market, so I hope other bubble bloggers begin to create their own
bubble maps to aggregate their collective wisdom and document falling
housing prices in their local markets.  If you do, please link it to
http://www.realestatebubblemap.com

Our hope is that a national network of bubble maps would help inform
and protect homebuyers from overpaying in overvalued markets.  That
lofty goals translates into creating an open source platform that
enable anyone to pick and choice "user-posted comps" to support offers
they submit well below sellers’ asking prices.  If it can work in
Massachusetts, it could be a model for other bubble bloggers and buyers
around the country.

Inflation-adjusted price declines since Sept 2005 in MA

Yoy_bostonbubble_0206_1

BostonBubble.com has done an extraordinary analysis of single
family home sales in Massachusetts that ought to be mandatory reading
for any homebuyer making an offer this Spring.  Thanks for their
permission to reprint the graph above and pull quotes below from their full post, "Boston Bubble Report: What’s Really Going on in MA- Feb 2006":

"It turns out that Massachusetts real estate has seen year over year
price declines every single month between September 2005 and February
2006 inclusive. While the Massachusetts Association of Realtors
officially states that February 2006 was the first time in several
years that there have been year over year declines, that is only true
in nominal terms. Seasonally adjusted values have been declining for
half a year now in real terms."

The MIT graduate behind BostonBubble.com is one of the bloggers who
participates in our monthly Bubble Hour to review housing statistics as
soon as they are released by the Massachusetts Association of
Realtors.  Please let us know if you would like to participate in those
Bubble Hours, online or in-person by emailing RECafe@mac.com.
In the meantime, your comments are welcome below or on the BostonBubble
forum
where you’ll find another remarkable graph and more insights into why
"real prices are down 11.44% from their peak. This is in contrast with
the 9.48% that the MAR is reporting."

Responses

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

HTML Snippets Powered By : XYZScripts.com