Eager to see what kind of ripple effects this news will have at the upcoming VRM / IIW conference, and PersonalData and blockchain communities in Boston and beyond. AirBnB’s acquisition and 17 million users certainly raise this question:
How will AirBnB’s move to adopt blockchain expedite, expand uses in real estate?
“…blockchains might allow Airbnb to share its user profiles with other companies. “The question is whether there’s a way to export [a user’s reputation] and allow access elsewhere to help other sharing economy models really flourish
could become a trusted form of digital identity, a bit like the profiles that credit bureaus create for individuals. If these identities can be “exported” to other platforms
potentially hugely useful, ways of using blockchains, such as door locks that open or close when a user sends money to a homeowner over a blockchain…”
Last Spring, the VRM / IIW community recommended setting up a working group to explore VRM as a “market maker in real estate.” To get that started, hosted 1st real estate unconferences in Boston and set-up Loomio site to form subworking groups. See thread related to blockchain in real estate:
http://bit.ly/DiscussBlockRE (share via social networks)
To reach the masses, using hashtag #RE2020. Hope to expand awareness of money-saving options for “ordinary” homebuyers, sellers, renters, etc. by asking “Where will real estate be in the year 2020?”
http://bit.ly/RE2020 (share via social networks)
Start chatter offline
If you’re in the Boston area, want to meet to discuss the implications of AirBnB’s move over beers? Follow #REonTap for details
As I write, the students from Harvard’s law, business and design schools are co-hosting a Real Estate Weekend inviting students and innovators from around the country to rethink real estate. Four years ago, the National Association of Realtors engaged tens of thousands of their members in interactive workshops entitled: RethinkFuture.
Both efforts reflect a growing awareness that real estate is changing, a recognition that’s attracted $3 billion dollars in investment in the past three years.
That number is tiny by comparison to what’s at stake: a potential $30 billion dollars annually in consumer savings. How do consumers — ordinary home buyers and sellers, not to mention a generation of Millennial challenged by unprecedented housing costs — get there from here?
#RE2020: What will real estate look like in 2020?
Last weekend, a number of collaborators launched a bold experiment — a cross-sector unconference to ask, “What will the real estate ecosystem look like in the year 2020?”
Our goal is to reform / co-create a real estate ecosystem capable of delivering BILLIONS annually in consumer savings by the year 2020. With smart homes, smart cities, wearable devices, blockchain, drones, robots and more, the real estate ecosystem is expanding and new players are changing the existing business model. In fact, a year ago the Realtors own strategic planning committee published a list of 50 ways the industry is vulnerable to disruption,:
Last weekend was the 1st in a series of unconferences and other events leading to November 2018, when the National Association of Realtors host their first annual convention in Boston. If anyone would like to follow our attempts to reform / disrupt the industry:
1. Follow / use #RE2020 — http://bit.ly/RE2020;
2. Join one of the working groups on our collaboration site:
3. Help identify ways we can work through existing organizations and MeetUp groups in Boston and beyond to transform this multi-trillion dollar industry.
CALL FOR COLLABORATION
Realtors know that the real estate ecosystem is changing, and if you look at their DANGERReport as an opportunity, we’d like to invite you to collaborate on coming events, including #RE2020’s next unconference.
The slider above shows a sample of them. For more information, follow http://bit.ly/RE2020
A leading real estate site recently asked, “Is Donald Trump the Real Deal?” To fact checkers, the answer is as straightforward as Huffington Post editor note: “Donald Trump is a serial liar…” and accusations that Trump University “lured students to spend up to $35,000 on real estate seminars.”
Even if everyone who’s seen The Big Short agrees with John Oliver’s assessment, “Starting [Trump] mortgage company in 2006 was one of the worst decisions you could possibly make,’ dismissing questions about what’s real in real estate as quickly as some would dump Donald Dumpft would miss some teachable moments.
There are multiple meanings and uses of the word “deal,” and envisioning them in an infographic would be a complex but interesting exercise. For example, compromising can be a virtue in “Art of the Deal” (name of the book coauthored by Trump in 2009), but compromising should be constrained by values, notably those people consider a BIG DEAL!
PRIVACY = BIG DEAL
That’s where unfolding headlines about the dispute between the FBI and Apple Computer add important angles to this discussion. Two weeks ago, a headline in USA Today read:
Here’s why the FBI forcing Apple to break into an iPhone is a big deal
http://bit.ly/PrivacyBigDeal (share via social media)
Apple, The F.B.I. And Your Privacy
http://bit.ly/NPRivacyDebate (share via social media)
Trump has a tarnished track record, and that’s important to expose. But polls suggest a surprising number of people agree with Apple – exposing their personal data to misuse is a BIG DEAL!
NEW DEAL ON REAL ESTATE DATA
Contentious panels at recent real estate technology conferences suggest that data ownership is a big deal within the real estate industry. But what about personal data — confidential data about homebuyers in particular?
MIT professor Sandy Pentland calls for “New Deal on Data” in his article in Harvard Business Review entitled
With Big Data comes Big Responsibility
http://bit.ly/BigDataDeal (share via social media)
Think it’s important to extend that to a “New Deal on Real Estate Data?” Think blockchain and VRM business models will enable that era? We do, that’s why we’re encourage homebuyers and homeowners to read this article:
US intelligence chief: we might use the internet of things to spy on you
http://bit.ly/IoTUSpy (share via social media)
If the government admits that IoT can be used to spy on you, does a research lab dedicated to “Powering the Internet of Things for Realtors” raise questions about privacy and data ownership, too?
PRIVACY BY DEFAULT
In December, we were delighted to read that the default setting for Zillow’s recent acquisition, DotLoop, seems to be raising the privacy bar in real estate to favor the consumer. Their Data Privacy Guarantee reads:
“Dotloop customers own all their data and dotloop will not use the data without customers’ permission.”
Will that give consumers the ability to control the access and use to their personal data? If so, that would be a BIG DEAL because it’s a step towards a new era of user managed access (UMA) in real estate that would reduce confidentiality breaches, set the stage for an agency revival, and ultimately empower consumers to leverage their personal data for financial gain.
CALL TO ACTION:
We’ve written in the past about using personal data in real estate as a use case for a New Deal on Real Estate Data. In January 2016, we proposed starting blockchain in real estate working groups in Boston and beyond. Ubitquity.io took the lead to launch a MeetUp in Washington, DC, where Congress is hearings arguments today about privacy versus security concerns. We’ll extend that debate to include privacy issues and conflicts of interest in real estate via our series of debates on Anchor.fm. Join us there to help share the future of real estate:
What’s “out of sync” with housing? Can we solve by next #LeapYear: 2020?
http://bit.ly/LeapRE2020 (share via social media)
Or if you’re in Boston, offline to create collages while listening to NPR’s rebroadcast (see tweet above).
We’re now entering what I like to call “phase II” of the on-demand economy…
…up the ladder to higher-end professions. It won’t just be drivers and dry cleaning, but also lawyers and architects, as we’re already seeing.
…But on-demand home services have proven difficult… just ask Homejoy (which closed).
On-demand vs Fee-for-Service in Real Estate
If a homebuyer is working with an exclusive buyer brokerage, are “fee-for-service” and “on-demand” the same thing? Maybe, maybe not — depends on what service the homebuyer chooses from an agency disclosure form (see state mandated form in Massachusetts).
If the real estate licensee is simply acting as facilitator, then non-agency services rendered the SAME DAY of the showing have a place when offered “on-demand.”
However, if the real estate professional is offering fiduciary-level buyer agency representation, SAME DAY showings and rushed offers are IMHO imprudent if not irresponsible. To paraphrase marketing guru Seth Godin who praised the Real Estate Cafe’s hourly fee model a decade ago, “‘On-demand’ could be the refuge of a DEALTOR or non-agency business model that has no experience or expertise to add value.”
Over the past two decades, our time sheets have typically tallied 25 to 45 hours, but those billable hours are spread out over months, often over years as shown in the image above — and nearly always PREPAID. If you’ve seen the movie The Big Short, you know why this graphic shows that patience is more valuable than speed:
Would you believe that nearly a decade ago, our goal was to help our buyer clients save six figures on every home they bought? Impressive as that sounds, it’s important to remember that real estate is cyclical and there was a time when three listings failed for every two that sold. Think speed matters in that kind of market? NO, over eagerness is actually counterproductive — especially this time of year!
On-demand vs Being proactive
Right now, some homebuyers in Greater Boston / Eastern Massachusetts are waiting for more inventory to come into the market during 2Q2016, but we’ve got proactive househunting strategies and special incentives that could help you save money on both the real estate commissions and purchase price.
From our perspective, that’s more valuable and credible than the “Urberfication of everything.” If on-demand services appeal to you, why not propose your own fee and rebate — one year, one in three of our buyer clients did. Want to talk about it in person over beer at one of our upcoming #REonTap sessions, or communicate via RealEstateCafe@gmail.com?
Earlier today, the publisher of a leading real estate news site posted this comment on Facebook:
“Foreign buyers are not as active as before due to the value of the dollar, says Realogy CEO Richard Smith, but not meaningful to the business.”
My response there:
Is it just the “value of the dollar” or are we beginning to see the beginning of the end of “CONCEAL estate”?
http://bit.ly/UnmaskRE (share via social media)
Wonder why the impact of foreign investment hasn’t become more visible in the presidential campaign. When newspapers like the NYPost are beginning to address the issue, can progressives like Bernie Sanders be far behind?
“…countries inundated with illicit cash are developing real estate bubbles and high housing costs for ordinary residents.”
Money laundering and real estate speculation may not be meaningful to “the business,” but tell that to a generation of millennials who are bidding against foreign buyers, or places like Vancouver that are becoming economic ghost towns, or boomers in Greater Boston who are discovering that the economics of downsizing no longer work.
What’s to be done? We’ve got thoughts — in fact, to our proposal to use blockchain to regulate blind bidding wars won first place in an MIT hackathon a month ago (see intro video). Who wants to explore that approach and other policy options, online or offline in Boston / Cambridge? One city councilor is interested, who else should be invited? Send nominees via email to firstname.lastname@example.org
Here are some idea starters from around the world, courtesy of an article pushed yesterday in Vancouver Business:
“Whether it’s a surtax on luxury homes offset by income, as proposed by a group of University of British Columbia and Simon Fraser University economists, or a stamp duty on foreign buyers (as in Hong Kong and the U.K.) or outright restrictions on foreign ownership of certain properties (as in Australia, Alberta and Prince Edward Island) or different property transfer tax rates for non-residents or a progressive property tax rate, it’s past time for a co-ordinated government effort…”
http://bit.ly/FlipREGhosts (share via social media)
What would a coordinated effort look like in Greater Boston — should we explore that with the civic tech community as well as planning efforts currently underway in Boston and Cambridge? At a minimum, might be a good topic to convene two MeetUps at the intersection of a transformative new technology — Boston Blockchain & Massachusetts Legal Hackers.
“What’s Next?” was one of the themes at #ICNY / #ICNY16 and a day after two blockchain gurus wow’ed that audience in NYC, a blockchain-enabled Bidding War platform quietly won an MIT Hackathon! Here’s the problem statement:
What’s next for blockchain in real estate? The Realtors have started an impressive lab — @CRTLabs — that’s Powering the Internet of Things for Realtors. Does that present an opportunity to collaborate or are consumers better served by their own lab? What role might innovators in Boston play?
Building a multiple offer / bidding war prototype is just one point of entry for dozens of blockchain-enabled use cases in the real estate ecosystem. RESO — Real Estate Standards Organization — is also exploring blockchain as a solution to their PUID (Property Unique ID) — arguably the digital cornerstone of the MLS.
For unofficial background on this baseline opportunity, visit the wiki from the Future Commerce Hack at MIT in November 2015 to see slides, links, and (dated) discussion of PUID:
Three opportunities are emerging:
1. First, if you would like to seed a Blockchain in Real Estate MeetUp in Boston, join one in Washington, DC, or start one in your local community, please let us know. We’d like to see cross-sector groups of consumer / civic tech / OpenGov advocates, as well as real estate innovators and app developers form nationwide, even internationally.
2. Second, if you’re a real estate innovator who would like to co-create an open ecosystem in real estate industry capable of delivering billions in consumer savings annually, that’s the goal of #RE2020. Please follow that hashtag on twitter, and share any time one of your clients (or DIY homebuyer / sellers) saves money! Our goal is $30 billion annually by the year 2020.
3. Finally, the National Association of Realtors is bringing their annual convention to Boston during November 2018. Traditionally, they’ve placed the real estate agent at the center of the transaction, but consumers need a “New Deal on Real Estate Data” that places personal data at the center of the transaction. Want to participate in a series of activities over the next three years to address this question:
What opportunities do you see, and how can we work together? The headwinds that face the housing industry in the emerging future need cross-sector collaboration. What to contribute to the conversation, online and off, on the road to Boston in 2018? We need your insights to elevate the conversation!
In what amounts to a New Year’s forecast, Brad Inman, publisher of Inman.com wrote on Facebook:
“This coming year, more disrupters will claim a stake in real estate.”
The question isn’t whether disruption is coming to the real estate industry, it’s what OTHER disruptive changes are coming to housing, demographics, climate and cities over the next decade that will need a new kind of real estate ecosystem (as well as digital + human agents) in the future?
Will other sectors of both the economy and society respond to multiple disruptive changes in general, and embrace new technologies that will enable a “New Deal on Real Estate Data” — wearable devices, driverless cars, SmartCities, SmartHomes & the Internet of Things that connects them? These are cross-sector challenges / opportunities that need a collaborative effort by multiple stakeholders to maximize their potential benefit.
Shall we start with providing enough affordable housing, so that families and parenthood itself don’t become sustainability issues? There’s not a single county across the U.S. with enough affordable housing! Or would you prefer to start with the Great Senior Sell-Off?
While some may expect real estate’s “big tent” to contain the evolution of the industry, others — including new players from OUTSIDE the traditional industry — are poised to pioneer new business models, some enabled by blockchain, that could turn the big tent into an “open air marketplace.” Think of a more efficient, consumer-centric alternative to what Brad Inman describes as an “insanely fragmented industry.”
Billions of dollars are at stake, and my hope is that an informal coalition of money-saving innovators will deliver $30B annually in consumer savings by the year 2020, hence the hashtag #RE2020.
Any start-ups / app developers / innovators want to join a Blockchain in Real Estate Cross-Sector Working Group? Collaborative process begins online and offline in Boston in January 2016 ramping up to and beyond the National Association of Realtors annual convention arrives here in November 2018.
Note: As the email above shows, this idea flows from a proposal first submitted to the #Inman25K competition announced informally by Brad Inman on stage at #ICSF15. Since he’s not selected a winner yet, we’ll start 2016 by seeding a real estate working group within the Boston Blockchain MeetUp without the $25K in prize money. Still, with $3 billion invested in real estate-tech startups over the past three years, we’re working with a large systems change consultant to package a proposal to involve multiple stakeholders.
Inquiries and seed funding welcome via RealEstateCafe@gmail.com. Happy New Years!
— Bill Wendel (@RealEstateCafe) October 28, 2015
Twenty-three years ago today, Ralph Nader energized a budding buyer brokerage movement with his first speech on real estate. Since then real estate consumer advocates have suffered numerous defeats, and homebuyers and sellers are literally paying the price… cartel pricing on real estate commissions in an industry that’s been able to avoid disruption.
Can a new crop of money-savings real estate business model push the industry to a tipping point? Maybe — even the real estate industry admits there are fifty ways they’re vulnerable to disruption, see http://DangerReport.com
Back to the Future
The Consumer Federation of America first called the real estate industry a cartel in 1991, and predicted that consumers would save ten billion dollars annually simply by uncoupling the two-side commission (something that still has not happened). That was pre-internet. By the end of the decade, McKinsey & Company estimated that potential savings could rise to $30 billion annually because online real estate transactions would create efficiencies and reduce fees from real estate agents and mortgage brokers. Regrettably, that still has not happened.
In retrospect, maybe it was fitting that Nader’s 1992 speech was on October 28, the Feast of St. Jude — the patron saint of lost or impossible causes. Rather than hiding from our shortcomings, innovators are invited to engage in smart failing exercises. Further, All Saints Day and Day of the Dead provide an opportunity to honor fellow real estate consumer advocates who devoted their lives to changing the industry. In his new book, Nobel prize winning economist Robert Shiller criticizes overly enthusiastic perceptions of FREE markets; and highlights the importance of unknown “heroes” willing to step in and protect consumers when regulatory agencies and politicians sit on the side lines — silenced by politics or legislation written by industry lobbyists. That certainly was the case for Bill Dennison, Ken Knapton, Jerilyn Coates, and Becky Swann.
Our shared money-saving mission
Finally, we’re not given up hope on our own life’s work. For our 20th anniversary, Real Estate Cafe has set twin goals:
We’d like to invite the next generation of money-saving real estate business models, DIY homebuyers and sellers (FSBOs) to join us in that five year campaign by using the hashtags #RE2020 and #ImpactREbates every time they save money, make a donation or an impact investment.
New opportunity to hack real estate?
What’s more likely to happen first, the Chicago Cubs will win the World Series as predicted in the movie, Back to the Future II, or a consumer advocates will break-up the real estate cartel? Thankfully, after twenty-thee years, we’re not the only ones still excited about the potential for new digital technologies to transform the real estate industry. In this May 2015 article in FastCompany, @Ideofutures says “real estate tops the list of industries that blockchain could disrupt”:
http://bit.ly/BitcoinRE (please share this tiny URL)
Real estate consumer advocates and technology innovators inside and outside the industry may have the opportunity to test that hypothesis at a hybrid online and in-person hack at MIT called FutureCommerce:
http://futurecommerce.civics.com (please share this tiny URL)
Real Estate Cafe is eager to seed a real estate track within the event and have offered to facilitate visioning exercises to help participants think beyond the existing real estate business model to an open eco-system capable of delivering billions annually in consumer savings. If there is sufficient interest, we’re willing to begin real estate working group BEFORE the actual event on November 20 -22, 2015. Let us know if you’re interested by emailing email@example.com.