Off-market listings outpace sales, represent opportunity to triple tax credit?

UPDATE:  See related blog post and video:  10,000+ MA Sellers “rebelling” on anniversary of Boston Tea Party

The housing market is entering the traditional “off-season” in New England, and as in past years, The Real Estate Cafe is monitoring expired, canceled, and withdrawn listings across Massachusetts. Over the past six and a half weeks, there have been approximately 10,700 expired, canceled and withdrawn listings across all price ranges and all residential property types (single family, condos, multi-family, and land.)

Surprisingly, 12% more listings have come OFF the market than have SOLD during the same period, a difference of 1,150 listings, DESPITE home buyer tax credits.  Could timing the housing market deliver savings three times the tax credit?  Let’s explore that question (we invite your feedback): 

If the median asking price of expired and canceled listings is more than $300,000, prudent home buyers who did not get sucked into self-defeating “bidding wars” before the original $8,000 tax credit was extended, could potentially TRIPLE their savings if sellers discount their price by the amount of the brokerage fee they are no longer obligated to pay. (Here’s what the math looks like: Deduct $15,000 to $18,000 from the $300,000 asking price ADD $8,000 tax credit = Total homebuyer savings of $23,000 to $26,000 or triple the $8,000 tax credit alone, right?)

Overall, how large a savings opportunity does timing the market represent?  Consider the following:  Approximately ten listings have expired, canceled, or been withdrawn from the MLS statewide EVERY HOUR over the past 45 days, or one listing off market every six minutes.

The 45 day total of 10,700 listings is three times more than the 10 day period surrounding the 4th of July, another traditional period when listing contracts expire. As documented in an earlier blog post, the RECafe forecasted 3,500 expired and canceled listings, or more than one every four minutes across MA!  As fee-for-service buyer agents, we don’t take listings.  So we’re glad to help you save money by identifying homes BEFORE they are listed on the MLS, or (2) AFTER they expire or are canceled.  Ready to take action?  (1) Preview our video, (2) Sign-up for daily email updates, and (3) Call 617-661-4046 to learn about our unique “proactive house hunting” strategies. 

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Posted in Defensive Homebuying, Extreme Househunting, Savings & Rebates, Timing the market

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