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Wall Street “spooked” by falling housing index

Brainstorming about user generated content / video contest:
Haunted by the Housing Market

The Real Estate Cafe has maintained an excel spreadsheet comparing
housing market conditions from 2000 to 2007.  The original version was
prepared for Halloween 2002, and resulted in a slideshow called,
"Haunted by the Housing Market."

As Halloween approaches this year, and NPR reported yesterday that Wall Street was "spooked
by a sharp drop in housing prices," we are thinking about sharing the
spreadsheet and inviting others to update the "Haunted by the Housing
Market" slideshow.

Better yet, what would it take to create a contest with different categories for user-generated content, like "Funniest Housing Bubble Video," "Best slideshow attached to an offer" (samples available),
etc.?  We’re open to putting our content on the web so others can
"mash-up" images, statistics, quotes (both audio and text), etc.

Any good models and potential sponsors out there?

Cross-post:  "Haunted by the Housing Market" originally mentioned as comment in this blog post:
Wait 2.0:  Negative cycle creating marginal or mega-savings for patient homebuyers?

Use the following quotes to launch "Haunted by the Housing Market."

NPR:  The closely watched S&P Case-Schiller housing index earlier this week spooked Wall Street when it showed a sharp drop in home prices — down more than 3 percent in the second quarter alone. 

Karl Case, a housing economist who helped develop the 20-year-old index, says it’s the largest price decline since the inception of the index.

Economists expect total declines of about 10 percent throughout many parts of the country — and up to 25 percent in some of the formerly hottest markets.

Need your prediction: How far will rising cost of jumbo loans drive prices down?

Askingprices_globe1_3
If you are a home buyer or seller reluctant to drop your asking price, MarketPlace.org’s segment tonight on jumbo loans is required listening:  "Jumbo loans feel subprime weight."

During the past several weeks, The Real Estate Cafe has helped buyer clients in Greater Boston prepare offers on luxury condos and a single family homes in the jumbo price range.  Thus far, sellers with broker listed properties have been reluctant to drop their prices, while FSBOs are ready to deal.  Maybe it’s too early for the trend documented below to show up in broker "comps" (ie.  recent sales):

"…more than 10 percent of his deals have fallen through in
the last few weeks — up from less than 1 percent. He says many people
just can’t get the loans they need. The same thing is happening in New
York, Boston and San Jose."

Will the rising cost of jumbo loans drive housing prices down in Boston and beyond, or as one economist fears, have a broader "jumbo impact on the U.S. economy."  What’s your prediction?  You can follow what real estate agents and others are saying on HomeThinking, what the public is predicting on My-Currency, and what the pros are modeling on Wall Street.  You can also leave a comment below, or add the location of homes selling below their assessed value value on our Boston Bubble map or RealEstateBubbleMap wiki. 

Before you make your prediction, take The Real Estate Cafe’s analysis of seasonality in the past into consideration:

According to [our] analysis of listing data between 1996 and 2002, one
in five Massachusetts properties that went under agreement between
Thanksgiving and New Year’s Day sold for at least 10 percent below the
original asking price.

Cross-posted on The Real Estate Cafe’s new, experimental social networking site.

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