Waiting game? Prices in 2007 vs 2010

21thru2010all_data1Turn off pop-up blocker, and click on table for larger image.

The Boston Globe is asking readers whether prices will keep falling, remain steady, or begin to rise again in 2007.  We asked our blog readers a similar question last year, but as the responses above show, wanted them to graph price changes through the end of the decade.  We’d be glad to repeat that survey, but for now, just want to know whether you will make your own 2007 real estate resolutions based on where prices will be over the next 12 months or five years?  Does it make a difference?  Let us know what you think about what one industry spokesperson says about playing the "Waiting game."

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Economists mirror consumer survey: “Housing prices apt to fall much more”

Blitzsurvey_1q2008_5yrs_v1(Turn off pop-up blocker, and click on table for larger image.)

An AP story hidden on page four of the Boston Globe business section, entitled "Housing prices apt to fall much more," reports that:

"A group of 10 economists says that home prices in the United States are only halfway through their fall."

"…and most of the further erosion should occur this year."

Those predictions are consistent with consumer surveys conducted by The Real Estate Cafe and Boston Bubble six months ago (December 2007 & January 2008), which revealed that consumers expected housing prices to bottom out sometime in 2009 or 2010. 

When consumers in Greater Boston were asked to graph housing prices over the next 5 years (through 2012) in their local city or town, the composite pattern above emerged.  A comparison of that table to the results of the same question asked two years ago (January 2006), reveals that consumer price expectations have taken a sharp downturn. 

A recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston projecting that foreclosures may not peak in Massachusetts until the 2nd quarter of 2010, could send housing price expectations even lower.  What’s your prediction as we end the 3rd quarter of 2008? 

Dismal scientists fear dismal housing recovery

Slow_sign1 For some time, The Real Estate Cafe has been saying that client house hunts that once took two to three months in Greater Boston, are now taking two to three years.  That was before this stunning headline,  "Economists see credit problems as bigger threat than terrorism," revealed these findings:

Asked to look five years into the future, 42 percent [of business economists] expected U.S. home prices to remain flat, 41 percent said prices should rise, and 16 percent predicted prices will fall

Only one in five of those surveyed predicted a "meaningful" recovery in U.S. housing markets before the second half of 2008. About 38 percent expected a recovery in the second half of 2008, while 42 percent said housing markets won’t turn around until 2009 or later.

If you are a home buyer, will the dismal survey findings above cause you to extend your house hunt by months or years?  Or will you be bargain hunting this Fall and winter, as seasonal price reductions create attractive home buying opportunities?

Join the discussion on our social networking site:  Wait 2.0?  Will dismal housing forecast extend househunts another 2 years?

NPR Talk Show Alert: Subprime Panic

Ides of March NPR Talk Show Alert:  Subprime Panic.

If you live in Greater Boston, you can listen to the live talkshow on
Thursday, March 15, 2007 from 10-11am on 90.9FM, WBUR or the
rebroadcast from 7-8pm.  Elsewhere, you can also listen to the live broadcast
online at OnPointRadio.org or download the podcast at your
convenience.

See related post:  Ides of March:  Beware mortgage meltdown & counterfeit buyer agents and email us if you would like to participate in an upcoming "Bubble Hour" to discuss this program or other news  documenting housing price trends.  Please let us know if you’d prefer to chat online or in-person.

If airlines have fare sales, should real estate agents?

Businesssuckssale_2 If airlines have fare sales, should real estate agents?  We think so.  We understand buyers are waiting for prices to fall, but candidly, that’s translated into a cash flow crisis for The Real Estate Cafe.  Still, as one of the nation’s first fee-for-service real estate concepts we’ve had the experience to develop a menu of fees and rebates to get through slow times.  The key is offering compelling saving opportunities for clients — so compelling, we hope at least one new or existing client decides to select one of our "flat fee" options the next three days.  So, if you think you’ll be buying a home in the next six months and want to "buy down" your hourly consulting fee, we’d be glad to explain how you to save up to $75 per hour.  (Current client case study available upon request or just read what the Wall Street Journal said about our 100% rebate options.).  If our $3,000 to $5,000 flat fee options are beyond your budget, consider these SPECIAL OFFERS:

  • Prepay for 5 hours of consulting service ($500), get one hour FREE ($100 savings). 
  • Prepay for 10 hours of consulting service ($1,000), get three hours FREE ($300 savings).

Limited to the first three existing or new clients to respond. 

Picnic-style Bubble Hour: “We’re not in Kansas any more”

Crystalball_wizardoz
What a week on Wall Street!  How soon will housing prices in Boston respond to the credit crunch?  That’s the subject we explored in our blog post last night that’s already been visited by more than 400 readers.  Many of them have come from a link on local favorite, BostonBubble.com, so we’re inviting readers, Real Estate Cafe clients, and others to join us TONIGHT, Friday, August 17, 2007 for a picnic-style "Bubble Hour" at the Hatch Shell on Boston’s Esplanade, just before the outdoor showing of the classic movie, "The Wizard of Oz."

As always, Friday Flicks are FREE and start at sunset (approx. 7:30pm, we’ll start gathering around 6:00pm so we can share insights into the falling housing market).  If it is not obvious where we are, please call us.

—–

If you’re a real estate professional, or just obsessed with money-saving real estate tools and toys, as we are at The Real Estate Cafe, join us for a real estate round table beforehand across the Charles River at MIT’s Muddy Charles Pub (TENTATIVELY, approx. 4-6pm).  Bring your laptop so we can surf some of the hot new sites featured at Real Estate Connect in San Francisco.  We’re also eager to begin brainstorming about the proposed real estate unconference this Fall in Boston.

If it is easier for fellow real estate professionals to meet earlier in the day, or in another venue (or to postpone the technology debriefing until another date, please use this wiki-style event planner to "Talk about it."

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