Sign of the times or self-fulfilling prophecy?
John Naisbitt (Megatrends, et al) used to count media mentions to track trends. On June 10, the New York Times ran a graphic counting the number of “major world newspaper” bubble features that had been published in the days of May: 0 in 2001; 18 in 2002; 20 in 2003 (a relative plateau); 35 in 2004; and more than double that to 77 in 2005 (and Fed Chief Alan Greenspan only weighed in with his “froth” concerns on May 20). Will the babble break the brawny housing bubble? Or is it just chit-chat chatter?
–Christina B. Farnsworth
Then or Now? Anyone want to guess the publication date of this article? Some of the points in this thread should be evaluated in the context of the date. If you contact me via email, I’d be glad to send links to this and a few other articles at the time to put Fed’s
interest rates changes into historical context.
Feds Report: Housing Starting To Weaken
by Lew Sichelman
Though residential real estate markets have generally remained stable this summer, some parts of the country are reporting weakness, especially in the upper price brackets, according to the latest economic summary from the Federal Reserve Board
And perhaps as another portent of things to come, the Comptroller of the Currency is worried that houses in some places could start losing value.
In warning national banks to be wary, Deputy Comptroller Nancy Wentzler reminded reporters recently that housing values dropped 8 percent on average during the last recession in 1991. Not only could it happen again, she said, it could “happen rather abruptly.”
If the Fed’s latest “Beige Book” report is any indication, the slow down may have already started in the districts served by the Boston, Chicago, San Francisco, Dallas and Kansas City federal reserve banks.
In the first federal reserve district, the Boston bank reported that while the overall housing market is still strong, “signs of softening are emerging.”