If job creation drives housing prices, what is preventing the Boston housing market from falling?

admin December 28, 2005

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Add to unemployment / job creation section of The Real Estate Cafe’s ongoing data collection / spreadsheet of factors underlying the housing bubble. This information has been archived periodically since 2000. Initially, a snap shot was taken each year just before Halloween for an annual update of our slideshow entitled, Haunted by the Housing Market. During 2005, we began making updates more frequently as evidence of the coming slide in housing prices began to mount locally and nationally. While it’s hard to miss the fact that some of "the biggest employers in town are leaving," as the Boston Herald article reports, this statement is stunning and more including in one’s prediction of where housing prices are headed in 2006 and beyond:

"The roughly 740,000 jobs in the Greater Boston area is still more than
80,000 shy of its 2000 peak. And it may take years more, perhaps as
long as a decade, before those boomtime employment levels are seen
again, said Nordby. Only by 2015 will the Greater Boston area boast
roughly the same number of jobs, 821,000, that it had in December 2000"

The Housing Bubble 2: ‘Sky-High Housing Costs’ Drive Away Boston Jobs.

Categories: Uncategorized

Wall Street “spooked” by falling housing index

Brainstorming about user generated content / video contest:
Haunted by the Housing Market

The Real Estate Cafe has maintained an excel spreadsheet comparing
housing market conditions from 2000 to 2007. The original version was
prepared for Halloween 2002, and resulted in a slideshow called,
"Haunted by the Housing Market."

As Halloween approaches this year, and NPR reported yesterday that Wall Street was "spooked
by a sharp drop in housing prices," we are thinking about sharing the
spreadsheet and inviting others to update the "Haunted by the Housing
Market" slideshow.

Better yet, what would it take to create a contest with different categories for user-generated content, like "Funniest Housing Bubble Video," "Best slideshow attached to an offer" (samples available),
etc.? We’re open to putting our content on the web so others can
"mash-up" images, statistics, quotes (both audio and text), etc.

Any good models and potential sponsors out there?

Cross-post: "Haunted by the Housing Market" originally mentioned as comment in this blog post:
Wait 2.0: Negative cycle creating marginal or mega-savings for patient homebuyers?

Use the following quotes to launch "Haunted by the Housing Market."

NPR: The closely watched S&P Case-Schiller housing index earlier this week spooked Wall Street when it showed a sharp drop in home prices — down more than 3 percent in the second quarter alone.

Karl Case, a housing economist who helped develop the 20-year-old index, says it’s the largest price decline since the inception of the index.

Economists expect total declines of about 10 percent throughout many parts of the country — and up to 25 percent in some of the formerly hottest markets.

admin August 30, 2007

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US Housing markets entering sustained decline?

Using market trends detailed in an article in the Boston Globe today entitled, US Housing market seen declining in 2006, economist Michael
Bazdarich concluded:

"…we believe housing is due for a sustained decline… The remaining questions are
how hard the fall will be and when it will begin."

Take a look at The Real Estate Cafe’s graph of 32,000 expired listings in Massachusetts below, then let us know if you think the decline has already begun and how far prices will fall. If you are housing hunting now in Greater Boston, what kind of price reductions are you seeing and do you agree that the "holiday season is an ideal time to buy?"

admin December 7, 2005

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Update: new listings posted on Cape Cod

UPDATE:

If you look beyond median prices to individual transactions, major price corrections are already happening. The Real Estate Cafe has already mapped nearly 400 sales below assessed value across 27 of the most expensive cities & towns in Greater Boston. In coming days, we’ll post another 200 sales to our real estate bubble map including 50 in Greater Boston and another 150 from Southeastern Massachusetts, primarily on Cape Cod. If you see evidence that prices are falling, please post them to the real estate bubble map or create your own. If you’re one of our clients, we’ll reward you for each property (see "Tipping Policy" for more detail.)

admin September 4, 2006

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Haunted by the Housing Market? Compare housing market Halloween 2000 vs 2010

Originally created for Halloween in 2002, readers are invited to (1) update this slideshow before Halloween 2010, and (2) use slides from this decade-long retrospective…

admin September 26, 2010

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Economists mirror consumer survey: “Housing prices apt to fall much more”

(Turn off pop-up blocker, and click on table for larger image.)

An AP story hidden on page four of the Boston Globe business section, entitled "Housing prices apt to fall much more," reports that:

"A group of 10 economists says that home prices in the United States are only halfway through their fall."

"…and most of the further erosion should occur this year."

Those predictions are consistent with consumer surveys conducted by The Real Estate Cafe and Boston Bubble six months ago (December 2007 & January 2008), which revealed that consumers expected housing prices to bottom out sometime in 2009 or 2010.

When consumers in Greater Boston were asked to graph housing prices over the next 5 years (through 2012) in their local city or town, the composite pattern above emerged. A comparison of that table to the results of the same question asked two years ago (January 2006), reveals that consumer price expectations have taken a sharp downturn.

A recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston projecting that foreclosures may not peak in Massachusetts until the 2nd quarter of 2010, could send housing price expectations even lower. What’s your prediction as we end the 3rd quarter of 2008?

admin June 18, 2008

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