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If job creation drives housing prices, what is preventing the Boston housing market from falling?

Add to unemployment / job creation section of The Real Estate Cafe’s ongoing data collection / spreadsheet of factors underlying the housing bubble.  This information has been archived periodically since 2000.  Initially, a snap shot was taken each year just before Halloween for an annual update of our slideshow entitled, Haunted by the Housing Market.  During 2005, we began making updates more frequently as evidence of the coming slide in housing prices began to mount locally and nationally.  While it’s hard to miss the fact that some of "the biggest employers in town are leaving," as the Boston Herald article reports, this statement is stunning and more including in one’s prediction of where housing prices are headed in 2006 and beyond:

"The roughly 740,000 jobs in the Greater Boston area is still more than
80,000 shy of its 2000 peak. And it may take years more, perhaps as
long as a decade, before those boomtime employment levels are seen
again, said Nordby. Only by 2015 will the Greater Boston area boast
roughly the same number of jobs, 821,000, that it had in December 2000"

The Housing Bubble 2: ‘Sky-High Housing Costs’ Drive Away Boston Jobs.

Dual agency: Untold story of real estate bubble?

I think there is some truth to complaint that the "traditional" real estate business model contributed to bidding wars over the past five years, hence the anger by some home buyers.  As a buyer agent, I can honestly say that our buyers seldom beat an in-house offer at well-known dominate firms in the Boston area.  My guess is that buyers were manipulated to drive prices up, and commissions were then shaved to insure in-house sales — enabling the brokerage to keep both sides of the commission.

MIT Professor: Housing prices could decline another 20%

Savings of $100,000 or more on individual home purchases were relatively common across the top 25 most expensive housing markets in Greater Boston in 2006, and according to one MIT professor, savings are likely to continue in 2007.  Professor William C. Wheaton predicts housing prices could decline another 20 percent in Greater Boston and other markets over the next two to three years.  Does that mean that homebuyers in the most expensive communities will see even more price reductions in each of these categories in 2007?

PARTIAL MAP of homes selling for more than $100,000 below their original asking price: (see technical note below)

As sales prices fall, well-informed sellers are could set more realistic prices so the gaps between the original asking price and final sales prices may not be as wide as those recorded in 2006.  We’ll continue to map the location of six figure savings, and invite you to do the same on The Real Estate Cafe’s award-winning interactive bubble map.  We’re so convinced that our clients will save money, we’re willing to base part of our compensation on it.  Contact us at 617-661-4046 or RECafe [at] Mac [dot] com for information on our experimental NEW fees and rebates options.

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