Real estate bubble leaving leftovers or Christmas presents for homebuyers?

Sf_marrank_112404v05_v2_2This chart, the first of five documenting price reductions in the Boston Globe’s feature story, ranks the increase in markdowns by price range for 2005 versus 2004 (click on image for larger view).

Red and green, the traditional colors of Christmas, indicate price
ranges in the middle of the market where holiday homebuyers will find
the most price reductions or "Christmas presents" this year.
Approximately 3,000 more price reductions have occurred on single family
homes between $400,000 and $600,000 (shown in RED), and more than 2,100
price reductions have occurred on homes priced between $300,000 and
$400,000 (shown in GREEN). Note, these are increases over last year not that total number of markdowns in each price range.  All figures are through November 24, or roughly Thanksgiving, both years and are based on data from MLS Property Information Network, the multiple listings service covering nearly all of Massachusetts.

Larger price reductions — some well over $100,000 — have occurred
in
more expensive price ranges but there are fewer
properties in those price ranges, and in some cases fewer price
reductions
compared to last year.  (That finding and others will be documented in
the next four graphs.  Click on our RSS feed to receive them and other
blog entries as soon as they are posted.)

Some homebuyers see prices reductions and expired listings as stale leftovers, others see them as money-saving opportunities.  What’s your take?  You can post your comment here, or call our podcast line — 617-876-2117 — to record your own sound bite.

Related Articles

MLS listings vs price reductions by price range across Massachusetts in 2005

Sf_2005listedvsreduced_112405_1This graph shows the number of single family homes listed across
Massachusetts in MLSPin compared to the number of price reductions by price range
through Thanksgiving, 11/24/2005 (click on image for larger view). Scroll down or click here to compare the number of markdowns this year versus last, but be sure to note the bar chart’s change in scale:  14,000 properties this year versus 12,000 last year.  If that sounds too confusing, sign-up for our RSS feed to automatically receive tomorrow’s graph
which will compare reductions side-by-side for each price range. 

We’re eager to know what kinds of bargains you are seeing in the market, and what kinds
of questions you would like to discuss on our blog or offline at one of our upcoming Boston Realty Parties (watch for more details).  In the meantime, post your comments below or call our reader line,
617-876-2117, to record a brief message for potential use in The
Real Estate Cafe’s podcast

Real estate bubble flashback: Listings vs price reductions 2004

Sf_2004listedvsreduced_112404_1Thus far, we’ve only posted one of five graphs comparing price
reductions on single family homes listed for sale in Massachusetts in
2004 versus 2005.  To establish a baseline for those comparisons, let’s
step back and look at the number of single family homes listed in
MLSPin through Thanksgiving last year compared to the number of price
reductions by price range  (click on image for larger view).

Tomorrow’s graph will show both the increase in listings and price
reductions by price range for this year, 2005.  To receive it
automatically, simply sign-up for The Real Estate Cafe’s RSS feed.  If
you have more specific questions about market trends — particularly
price reductions across Massachusetts related to your own house hunt,
please let us know how we can help you help yourself!  There are
thousands of bargains this time of year, and you can increase your
savings by choosing one of our rebate options, see see diagram of potential savings.

Price reductions on single-family homes across Massachusetts: 2004 vs 2005

Sf_noreduced112404_05_labeled_2This graph, the fourth in a series of five documenting market trends
behind the Boston’s Globe’s recent feature story, shows side-by-side
comparisons of markdowns by price range for single family
homes across Massachusetts through Thanksgiving in 2004
versus 2005 (click on image for larger view).  As the red bars indicate, price reductions increased in nearly every price range in 2005, but most
notably in the mid-market or $300,000 to $600,000 price range.

The increase of markdowns in the $500,000 to $600,000 price range is
particularly visible in this bar chart, and could translate into
savings of tens of thousands of dollars off original asking prices,
even before our unrivaled commission rebates.  You can learn more about them by
reviewing The Real Estate Cafe’s menu of compensation plans, or
contacting us.  As always, your comments are welcome on our blog, or by
calling our reader line to record a sound bite for potential use in our
audio time capsule of the real estate bubble.

Sharp price reductions point to hard landing for Boston Housing Market

NEWS FLASH:  Watch for more analysis and graphs of data behind the headline story in upcoming blog posts.  Should we host a Boston Realty Party — online or in person?  — to celebrate the end of the real estate bubble and the
beginning of the first buyers’ market in more than a decade in Boston?

Sellers chop asking prices as housing market slows
Cuts of up to 20% are now common as analysts see signs of a ‘hard landing’
By Kimberly Blanton, Boston Globe Staff  |  December 9, 2005

”The
evidence — both early data and the anecdotes — are pointing more
toward a hard rather than a soft landing" in the housing market, said
Nicholas Perna, an economic consultant in Ridgefield, Conn. ”Prices
could come down. Could it be 10 to 15 percent? There’s no way of
knowing, but what we’re getting is more clues that you’ve got a decline
in prices underway.

Some of research conducted by
The Real Estate Cafe was featured prominently in the article, although
the contribution made via an interview with one of our buyers was less
obvious:

Moderately priced homes are feeling the
brunt of the price squeeze, according to an analysis of MLS listing
data by Cambridge broker Bill Wendel.

Statewide,
38,418 houses had priced reductions between Jan. 1 and Nov. 24, or 22
percent more than the number of reductions during the same period in
2004. But the number of price reductions on homes between $500,000 and
$1 million increased by 36 percent. One price segment that ”jumps off
the page as soft," said Wendel, is the $500,000 to $600,000 price
range, the fourth most active segment of the single-family housing
market. It had 1,258 more markdowns, up 40 percent from last year.

The Boston Globe has aggregated some of their recent stories on the changing market into this Special Section
online.  Now you can see why The Real Estate Cafe wants to throw a Boston Realty Party,
on December 16, the 232 anniversary of the Boston Tea Party, for
homebuyers to celebrate the end of the real estate bubble and the
beginning of the new buyer’s market!  Let us know if you’d be interested in participating online or in person in the Boston area.

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