Holiday homebuyers: 1 in 5 homes sells for at least 10% off, expect more this year!

Exps_111704_05_2How much excess housing inventory is on the market in Massachusetts compared to past years, and what will that mean to holiday homebuyers?  According a Boston Globe article entitled, Season can leave buyers in good cheer (November 30, 2003)

“…November and December are typically the two months with the fewest number of houses for sale. Between 1997 and 2002, the average number of homes on the market in Massachusetts in any given month was 33,636. The November average was 29,733, and the December average was 28,378.”

Two years later, a simple tally of MLS listings in Massachusetts shows 44,646 single family, condominium, and multi-family properties currently on the market.  Add land parcels, and that number rises to 47,476 listings.  If you use the first figure, the inventory is up by 50% over November 2003.  If you use the second, inventory is up over 60%.

What’s that mean for the average homebuyer?  As The Real Estate Cafe told the Boston Globe in November 2003, end of season markdowns make the holidays an ideal time for homebuyers to bargain hunt:

According to [our] analysis of listing data between 1996 and 2002, one in five Massachusetts properties that went under agreement between Thanksgiving and New Year’s Day sold for at least 10 percent below the original asking price.

Larger savings are possible this year because of the oversupply of inventory and the soaring number of expired listings as shown in the graph above (click on image for larger view).  If you’d like to learn how you can time the market to maximize your savings and stretch your savings enough further with our unrivaled commission rebates, give us a call at 617-661-4046 or email us RealEstateCafe@gmail.com.

Related Articles

Will expired listings surpass 2003?

Originally posted to Harvard Law School blog: 1/28/04:

My goal is to develop a forum for real estate consumers, particularly home buyers, to post comments about what is really happening in their local housing markets. Despite the Boston Globe’s headline yesterday, stating that 2003 set a record for existing home sales in Massachusetts, 2003 also so the highest number of expired listings since 1998.

During the last 90 days of 2003, approximately 12,000 listings expired or were canceled. This represents approximately 40% of the homes on the market in Sept 2003, and totals approximately $5 billion in listings.

What does this mean for ordinary consumers? The housing market is not as "hot" as the press is reporting, and expectations that prices will continue to rise at approximately 10% per year in 2004 could result in thousands of buyers overpaying for properties.

Boston housing market 2006: “Hard landing” or “return to normalcy”?

Three weeks after economist Nicholas Perna told the Boston Globe that "both early data and the anecdotes — are pointing more toward a hard rather than a soft landing" for the [Massachusetts] housing market, Perna repeated that assessment in the Boston Herald following news that single-family home sales fell 9.2 percent in November.  Need to confirm, but isn’t that the four month this year of near double-digit decreases compared to 2004?

"It sounds more and more like the housing adjustment is a harder landing in Massachusetts than elsewhere in the country,’ said economist Nicholas Perna. ‘I don’t think we are seeing anything like that in the country as a whole. My guess is that Massachusetts is among the most seriously affected."

Some real estate professionals dismissed the significance of falling sales, calling them a "return to normalcy."   What’s your take?  Your comments are welcome below, or on our readers’ "record your own podcast" line:  617-876-2117. 

Real estate bubble leaving leftovers or Christmas presents for homebuyers?

Sf_marrank_112404v05_v2_2This chart, the first of five documenting price reductions in the Boston Globe’s feature story, ranks the increase in markdowns by price range for 2005 versus 2004 (click on image for larger view).

Red and green, the traditional colors of Christmas, indicate price
ranges in the middle of the market where holiday homebuyers will find
the most price reductions or "Christmas presents" this year.
Approximately 3,000 more price reductions have occurred on single family
homes between $400,000 and $600,000 (shown in RED), and more than 2,100
price reductions have occurred on homes priced between $300,000 and
$400,000 (shown in GREEN). Note, these are increases over last year not that total number of markdowns in each price range.  All figures are through November 24, or roughly Thanksgiving, both years and are based on data from MLS Property Information Network, the multiple listings service covering nearly all of Massachusetts.

Larger price reductions — some well over $100,000 — have occurred
in
more expensive price ranges but there are fewer
properties in those price ranges, and in some cases fewer price
reductions
compared to last year.  (That finding and others will be documented in
the next four graphs.  Click on our RSS feed to receive them and other
blog entries as soon as they are posted.)

Some homebuyers see prices reductions and expired listings as stale leftovers, others see them as money-saving opportunities.  What’s your take?  You can post your comment here, or call our podcast line — 617-876-2117 — to record your own sound bite.

Real estate bubble flashback: Listings vs price reductions 2004

Sf_2004listedvsreduced_112404_1Thus far, we’ve only posted one of five graphs comparing price
reductions on single family homes listed for sale in Massachusetts in
2004 versus 2005.  To establish a baseline for those comparisons, let’s
step back and look at the number of single family homes listed in
MLSPin through Thanksgiving last year compared to the number of price
reductions by price range  (click on image for larger view).

Tomorrow’s graph will show both the increase in listings and price
reductions by price range for this year, 2005.  To receive it
automatically, simply sign-up for The Real Estate Cafe’s RSS feed.  If
you have more specific questions about market trends — particularly
price reductions across Massachusetts related to your own house hunt,
please let us know how we can help you help yourself!  There are
thousands of bargains this time of year, and you can increase your
savings by choosing one of our rebate options, see see diagram of potential savings.

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