Three weeks after economist Nicholas Perna told the Boston Globe that "both early data and the anecdotes — are pointing more toward a hard rather than a soft landing" for the [Massachusetts] housing market, Perna repeated that assessment in the Boston Herald following news that single-family home sales fell 9.2 percent in November. Need to confirm, but isn’t that the four month this year of near double-digit decreases compared to 2004?
"It sounds more and more like the housing adjustment is a harder landing in Massachusetts than elsewhere in the country,’ said economist Nicholas Perna. ‘I don’t think we are seeing anything like that in the country as a whole. My guess is that Massachusetts is among the most seriously affected."
Some real estate professionals dismissed the significance of falling sales, calling them a "return to normalcy." What’s your take? Your comments are welcome below, or on our readers’ "record your own podcast" line: 617-876-2117.
Cheers and what would you think if The Real Estate Cafe hosted a weekly Bubble Hour, offering to debate anyone about whether there is a real estate bubble in Boston?
If most forwarded news stories are any indication of what people are talking about, it’s no surprise that Intelligence Squared has debated the sexual revolution, but not the real estate bubble across the pond. Sounds high brow, if an off color topic. http://www.intelligencesquared.com/event_past.php?d=20050621
In contrast, not sure if you could say the same thing about Boston.com’s most forwarded email. Sorry reflection of the world we live in, or just an indication of the therapeudic role of humor in a world in a world desparately in need of laughter.
What is the point of economic growth if more people are NOT more prosperous. Let’s stop focusing on the GDP, and focus on the MDP: Median Domestic Prosperity. Four years of declining prosperity. Let’s be honest, this economy is nothing to cheer about.
And Reich does not even mention that the economy is overly dependent on real estate, which accounted for more than 90 percent of the growth of the GDP in some markets.
Add to unemployment / job creation section of The Real Estate Cafe’s ongoing data collection / spreadsheet of factors underlying the housing bubble. This information has been archived periodically since 2000. Initially, a snap shot was taken each year just before Halloween for an annual update of our slideshow entitled, Haunted by the Housing Market. During 2005, we began making updates more frequently as evidence of the coming slide in housing prices began to mount locally and nationally. While it’s hard to miss the fact that some of "the biggest employers in town are leaving," as the Boston Herald article reports, this statement is stunning and more including in one’s prediction of where housing prices are headed in 2006 and beyond:
"The roughly 740,000 jobs in the Greater Boston area is still more than
80,000 shy of its 2000 peak. And it may take years more, perhaps as
long as a decade, before those boomtime employment levels are seen
again, said Nordby. Only by 2015 will the Greater Boston area boast
roughly the same number of jobs, 821,000, that it had in December 2000"